THE DEAN’S LIST: The Week the War Losses Disappeared

Dean’s take:
Read that scoreboard again. All the war-related losses in the S&P 500 are gone. The index just hit an all-time record. The VIX is back to normal. Gas is falling. Oil is crashing. And three weeks ago, people were selling everything.

Pull up the Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio. Look at it. That calm story I’ve been telling you about underneath the noise? It’s now the only story. Half the S&P sectors were flat to positive even during the worst of it. Now the other half is catching up. Forward this to the person who called you crazy for not selling in March. They need to see these numbers.

Dean’s note:
The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time in history on Wednesday. By Thursday, it hit another record. By Friday, another one. Three consecutive all-time highs. The Nasdaq just posted its longest winning streak since 1992. Oil dropped to $90, its lowest since the first week of the war. The Dow recouped every point it lost since February 28.

The catalyst? A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on Thursday. Iran immediately said the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” during the Lebanon truce. Oil crashed 9% on Friday alone. Brent dropped 11% on the announcement.

But here’s what really drove this rally. It wasn’t one headline. It was six weeks of evidence stacking up. 178,000 jobs. Core CPI below expectations. Delta’s record revenue. Every major bank is beating earnings. The AI buildout is accelerating through the storm. Oil futures for 2027 are in the high $60s the entire time. The market was waiting for permission to do what the data already supported. This week, it got it.

Two warnings. First: the ceasefire is 10 days, not permanent. Iran and the U.S. haven’t reached a final deal. The Islamabad talks failed last weekend. The U.S. Navy is still blockading Iranian ports. We may very well wobble again.

Second: some analysts think the market is getting ahead of itself. ING warned caution. The IMF raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4%. GDP growth is slowing. This recovery is real, but it’s not bulletproof.

Keep your discipline. The same patience that kept you invested through six weeks of pain is the patience that should keep you from overreacting to six days of euphoria. The game hasn’t changed. Stay diversified. Stay zoomed out. Stay humble.

The week the market went from correction to celebration. Here’s what mattered:

Monday (April 14): The S&P effectively wiped out all war losses, closing above its pre-war level for the first time since February 27. Oil dropped below $100 on growing optimism that the ceasefire was holding. Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter results that topped expectations, driven by record equities trading revenue. The bank saw massive trading volumes during the war’s volatility.

Tuesday (April 15): JPMorgan posted a 13% rise in Q1 profits. Revenue beat estimates. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an “increasingly complex set of risks,” but results spoke louder than caution. Citigroup and Wells Fargo also beat. Oil dropped below $95 as markets grew optimistic that the ceasefire would be extended before its April 22 expiration. Producer prices showed the oil shock flowing through: gasoline up 15.7% month over month. But the market looked through it. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time in history at 7,022.95. The Nasdaq crossed 24,000. 

Wednesday (April 16): Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reported. Both beat. PepsiCo beat. The S&P hit a second consecutive record close. The Nasdaq extended its winning streak. Reports emerged that direct U.S.-Iran talks could happen as early as this week. The Philly Fed manufacturing index surged to 26.7, well above expectations, signaling factory activity is rebounding. But prices paid spiked to their highest since 2022. The economy is running hot on activity and inflation.

Thursday (April 17): The big catalyst. Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Iran immediately said the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” during the Lebanon truce. Oil plunged. Brent dropped 11% on the announcement. The S&P hit a third consecutive record. The Nasdaq posted its longest winning streak since 1992.

Friday (April 18): Markets recouped all war losses. Brent settled at $90.38, its lowest since March 10. WTI dropped to around $83. Gas prices began easing nationally. The VIX fell to 17.5, its lowest level since before the war. Bank earnings were a clean sweep: Goldman, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, BofA, Morgan Stanley - all beat estimates.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time. Let me put that in context.

The index hit its previous all-time high of 7,002 on January 28. Then the war began on February 28. The S&P dropped 9.8% to a low of 6,317 on March 30. From that low to Wednesday’s close, the index surged 11.2% in just ten trading sessions. For context, that’s faster than the post-COVID bounce back in April 2020. Faster than the post-Liberation Day recovery last year.

The recovery was led by mega-cap tech. Microsoft surged 4% on Wednesday. Tesla rose 8%. NVIDIA has been running on the AI infrastructure narrative. Semis led the Nasdaq. 

Dean’s note:
Two months ago, people were asking if we were heading into a bear market. Today, we’re at all-time highs. That’s the market. It doesn’t send you a memo when the bottom is in. It just turns. The people who stayed invested, kept contributing, and didn’t sell into the panic are the ones smiling right now. That’s not luck. That’s discipline. And discipline is the only edge that compounds.

Every major bank beat Q1 estimates this week. All six. Here’s the quick rundown:

Goldman Sachs: Record equities trading revenue. The war’s volatility was a trading bonanza. JPMorgan: Profits up 13%. Dimon warned of complex risks but results were strong across investment banking and trading. Wells Fargo: Beat on both revenue and earnings. Citigroup: Solid beat. Stock moved into positive territory for the year. Bank of America: Beat estimates. Mortgage and trading revenue held. Morgan Stanley: Beat.

Dean’s note:
When all six banks beat, that tells you the financial system is functioning. Credit markets aren’t seizing. Trading desks are making money. Corporate activity is alive. Dimon’s warning about complexity is worth noting – he’s always cautious, and he’s usually right to be. But the numbers said more than words. The banks navigated an oil shock, a war, and a correction, and came out stronger. That’s not a sign of a broken economy.

On Thursday, Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Iran immediately said the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” during the truce. Oil crashed.

Brent dropped 11% on the announcement, settling at $90.38 on Friday, its lowest since March 10. WTI fell to around $83. That’s a 26% decline from the $112 peak just two weeks ago.

The Lebanon ceasefire matters because Israel’s strikes on Lebanon were the main obstacle to the Iran ceasefire holding. When Israel struck Beirut on April 9, Iran cited it as a violation and re-closed the Strait. Now that the obstacles are at least temporarily removed.

Dean’s note:
I’ve said for seven weeks that oil futures for 2027 were in the high $60s. The market knew this war premium was temporary. Now it's unwinding. Brent is at $90 today; futures say $65-$68 next year. The gap is closing. But don’t assume $70 oil by Monday. The U.S. Navy is still blockading Iranian ports. The final peace deal isn’t done.

The 10-day clock is ticking. And infrastructure in the Gulf has been damaged. IATA said last week it will take months for jet fuel to normalize. The direction is right. The pace will still be bumpy. That’s okay. Bumpy forward is still forward.

While everyone celebrated the S&P hitting 7,000, a quieter number landed: Q4 GDP was revised down to just 0.5% annual growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q1 stands at 1.3%.

That’s not a recession. But it’s not exactly booming either. The economy is growing, but slowly, weighed down by the oil shock and uncertainty. Philly Fed manufacturing activity surged this week, which is good, but the prices paid component spiked to its highest since 2022, which is not.

The IMF raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4% from 4.1%. They see the oil damage lingering.

Dean’s note:
The market is celebrating the war ending. The economy is still digesting the war happening. Those two things can coexist. Stocks are a forward-looking machine. They’re pricing in an end to the oil shock, AI spending accelerating, and bank earnings beating.

GDP is a backward-looking report card. It’s telling you that the first quarter was tough. Both are true. The question for Q2 is whether forward-looking optimism aligns with backward-looking reality. If oil stays below $90 and the ceasefire holds, Q2 could surprise to the upside. If it doesn’t, the market may have gotten ahead of itself. Stay patient. Stay diversified. Our view is still the best set up will come in the second half of the year. 

The spring released. All the way.

Three consecutive record highs. All war losses erased. Oil crashing. Banks sweeping earnings. The VIX is below 18. Gas prices are falling. A Lebanon ceasefire. The Strait opening.

•   The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time in history. From the March 30 low of 6,317 to Wednesday’s 7,023, that’s an 11.2% surge in ten trading sessions. Faster than the post-COVID bounce. Faster than the post-Liberation Day recovery. The market was coiled for six weeks. When it released, it released hard.

•   Oil has dropped 26% from its $112 peak to $83 WTI. Brent at $90. Gas is finally starting to fall. Every dollar oil drops is margin expansion for airlines, lower input costs for manufacturers, and less pressure on the consumer. The war premium is deflating rapidly. Oil futures for 2027 remain in the high $60s. The market was right all along.

•    Every major bank beat earnings. Goldman. JPMorgan. Citi. Wells Fargo. BofA. Morgan Stanley. Six for six. The financial system navigated a war, a correction, and an oil shock without breaking. That’s the resilience that matters.

•   The Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire is the catalyst the market was waiting for. Iran said the Strait is “completely open” during the truce. The U.S. Navy is still blockading Iranian ports and clearing mines. Direct U.S.-Iran talks may happen soon. The direction is forward.

•   GDP is slowing. Q4 revised to 0.5%. Q1 tracking at 1.3%. The IMF raised inflation forecasts. The economy is digesting the war even as the market celebrates its end. Stocks look forward. GDP looks backward. Both are telling you something real.

•   Earnings season continues next week. Netflix, TSMC, and more big names report. Tech earnings will tell us whether the AI spending story is intact or whether the oil shock created cracks. Guidance matters more than results.

•   Keep contributing to your 401(k). The $24,500 limit is in effect. If you’re aged 60 - 63, use the $35,750 super catch-up. You were buying at a discount for six weeks. Now you’re buying at all-time highs. Both are right. That’s dollar-cost averaging. It doesn’t care about the price. It cares about the process.

Seven weeks ago, I started writing about a coiled spring. A market sitting on the buy button. Oil futures that said the war premium was temporary. A labor market that refused to crack. An AI infrastructure buildout that never paused.

This week, every single one of those themes resolved as I expected. The spring released. The war losses disappeared. The records fell.

I wish I could tell you it’s smooth sailing from here. I can’t. The ceasefire is for 10 days, not permanent. GDP is slowing. Inflation is elevated. The final peace deal isn’t done. And markets that run up 11% in ten days often give some back.

But I know the direction. And the direction is better than it’s been since January.

Stay zoomed out. Stay diversified. Stay disciplined. And maybe, just this once, let yourself smile.

- Dean

P.S. The number that sticks with me this week: 7,000. The S&P 500 closed above it for the first time in history. Two months ago, the index was at 6,317 and falling. People were panicking. Selling. Asking if the bull market was over. Today it’s at a record high. That’s not a prediction I made. It’s a pattern I’ve seen before. Corrections with identifiable, temporary causes end. Every single time. The people who stay invested through them are the ones who capture the recovery. That was the lesson six weeks ago. That’s the lesson today. And it’ll be the lesson next time.

And one more thought. Buffett said two weeks ago: “But not in this market”. The market has since rallied 11%. If even Buffett’s timing was off, what makes you think yours will be better? That’s not a knock on Buffett. He’s the greatest investor of this generation. It’s a knock on the idea that timing matters more than time in. So show up. Contribute. Let the compounding do the work.

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