THE DEAN’S LIST: The Month That Rewrote the Scoreboard

Read that April number again. S&P up 10% in a single month. The entire war loss was erased. Followed by four of the biggest earnings beats in history in a single night. Before you assume the hard work is done, pull up the Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio. Take a look. The war is only kinda over. The Strait is still closed. Oil is still above $100.

The Fed is still on hold. But the portfolio designed for all environments - not just the good ones - is having a very good time right now. Go see how it’s positioned. Then decide whether your own portfolio is as balanced.

Dean’s note:
On Wednesday night, April 29, four of the most important companies in the world reported earnings after the bell. Meta. Microsoft. Alphabet. Amazon. All four beat. All four raised spending on AI. All four said the infrastructure buildout is accelerating, not pausing.

Then Apple reported on Thursday. Revenue up 17%. iPhone the most popular lineup in history. Services - their highest-margin business is up 16%. Q3 guidance well above expectations.

That’s five for five. And it happened in the same week that Caterpillar raised its full-year revenue outlook, Qualcomm jumped 16%, and the S&P 500 crossed 7,200 for the first time in history.

April 2026 ended with the S&P up 10% for the month. The best since November 2020. The Nasdaq is up 15%. Best since April 2020. The recovery from the war-driven correction was complete, and then some.

But the week was not without friction. Jerome Powell held rates for what will be his final time as Fed chair and gave his most cautious press conference in years. He said the central bank faces “competing risks”, persistent inflation from oil, and a labor market that has softened but not broken. He is not raising rates. He is not cutting rates. He is watching.

Oil is still above $100. California gas hit $6 a gallon. The Iran blockade continues. Trump told aides to prepare for an extended blockade. And the IEA said oil demand is beginning to contract because of high prices - the definition of demand destruction. That’s the mechanism that eventually resolves oil shocks. Not diplomacy, necessarily. Just price.

Two things can be true at once. The AI economy is booming. The energy problem is not solved. The smart money holds both in mind.

The most consequential earnings week of the year. Here’s how it played out:

Monday (April 27): S&P and Nasdaq both closed at new record highs. The OpenAI revenue miss from the prior week caused some chip-stock softness early, but markets recovered. NVIDIA dipped slightly. Consumer confidence data from Friday (92.8, best of 2026) carried the mood. Iran peace talks remained stalled after Witkoff and Kushner’s Pakistan trip was canceled.

Tuesday (April 28): Markets pulled back. S&P -0.49%, Nasdaq -0.9%, as oil rose again and chip stocks faced continued pressure from the OpenAI story. The UAE confirmed it would exit OPEC effective May 1. GM crushed Q1 earnings ($4.2 billion vs. $3 billion expected), Coca-Cola beat estimates and gained nearly 4%, and Starbucks raised its full-year outlook after a second straight quarter of traffic growth. But the vibe was cautious. All eyes turned to Wednesday’s Fed decision and the earnings bomb arriving after the close.

Wednesday (April 29): The final Jerome Powell era Fed meeting. Rates held at 3.50-3.75%, 8-4 decision. In his press conference, Powell said the Fed faces two-sided risks: persistent inflation driven largely by energy and a labor market that has eased but remains resilient. He gave no timeline for cuts. The 10-year yield jumped five basis points to 4.41% on his remarks. Markets barely moved during the session. Then came the night.

After the close: Meta reported EPS of $10.44, crushing the $6.67 estimate by 56%. Revenue $56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year. Microsoft beat on both lines. Azure grew 40% year-over-year. Alphabet reported revenue of $109.9 billion, up 22%. Google Cloud surged 63% to $20 billion. EPS grew 82%. Amazon beat EPS estimates by $1.14 to $2.78 and revenue by $6.5 billion to $181.5 billion. All four companies raised capital expenditure guidance, signaling that AI spending is accelerating, not pausing.

Thursday (April 30): The market reacted exactly as you’d expect. S&P gained 1.02% to close above 7,200 for the first time in history at 7,209. Nasdaq hit a new record. Caterpillar jumped 10% after raising its annual revenue outlook -  a significant signal from the company that makes the machines used to build everything. Qualcomm beat and surged 16%. Apple reported after the close: revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year over year. iPhone revenue $57 billion, up 22%. Services revenue $31 billion, up 16%. Q3 guidance: 14% revenue growth, well above the 10% Wall Street expected. California gas hit $6 per gallon on Thursday. April’s monthly numbers sealed: S&P up 10%, Nasdaq up 15%.

Friday (May 1): Quiet session. Markets held near records. Oil pulled back slightly as the IEA warned that high prices are beginning to destroy demand, a development that, over time, brings prices down without requiring a ceasefire. Bitcoin reached its highest level in months. The UAE officially exited OPEC. April jobs data is due May 8.

On Wednesday evening, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon reported in the same window. All four beat. Here’s the short version:

Meta: EPS $10.44 vs. $6.67 expected. Revenue $56.3 billion, up 33%. Raised AI capex to $125 billion for the year. Zuckerberg said AI is “the most transformative technology of our lifetime”.

Microsoft: EPS $4.27 vs. $4.06. Revenue $82.9 billion, up 18%. Azure grew 40% year-over-year. Full-year capex raised to roughly $190 billion.

Alphabet: Revenue $109.9 billion, up 22%. Google Cloud grew 63% to $20 billion. Backlog nearly doubled to $460 billion. EPS $5.11, up 82%.

Amazon: EPS $2.78 vs. $1.64. Revenue $181.5 billion vs. $177.3 billion expected. AWS strong. BofA raised its price target.

Together, these four companies now plan to spend somewhere between $450 billion and $500 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. That is not a rounding error. That is the largest coordinated private capital deployment in human history.

Dean’s note:
When four of the world’s most disciplined capital allocators all raise spending at the same time, something important is being said. They see something. Google Cloud at $20 billion and growing 63% is not a wish. Azure at 40% growth is not a story.

These are real revenues from real businesses paying real money to use AI infrastructure. It’s receipts. And Alphabet’s $460 billion backlog - nearly 2x q/q - tells you this is not a one-quarter story.

Apple does not get enough credit for what it reported Thursday.

Revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% - an acceleration from last quarter’s 16% growth. iPhone revenue of $57 billion, up 22%, with management calling the iPhone 17 lineup the most popular in history. Services revenue of $31 billion, up 16% - an acceleration from 14% growth last quarter and 13.5% for all of fiscal 2025. Greater China revenue jumped 28%.

Guidance for Q3: 14% revenue growth. Wall Street expected 10%.

And here’s the number that most people missed: Apple spent $4.3 billion on capital expenditures in the first half of its fiscal year. For context, Microsoft spent $31.9 billion in just one quarter. Apple is playing a different game on AI - embedding it into the devices people already own rather than building data centers. Its partnership with Google on foundation models for Siri is part of that.

Dean’s note:
Everyone is worried about whether Apple can compete in AI. The stock dipped on Tim Cook’s exit announcement. The debate about Siri versus ChatGPT runs every week on tech Twitter. But look at what Apple is actually doing. Revenue accelerating. iPhone demand is at a historic high. Services growing faster each quarter.

Greater China, a market everyone wrote off, is up 28%. This is a company that bends but does not break. Ternus inherits a machine that is running better than at almost any point in its history. The AI gap is real. But the business is not broken. Not even close.

Jerome Powell held interest rates steady at 3.50% on Wednesday in what is expected to be his final FOMC meeting as chair. The vote was not unanimous.

His press conference tone was the most cautious of his recent tenure. He said the Fed faces “competing risks” on both sides. Inflation, driven largely by energy prices, has remained above the 2% target. The labor market has softened but has not broken. The Fed is not ready to cut. And it is not going to raise rates into a war.

The 10-year yield jumped 5 basis points to 4.41% on his remarks, reflecting the market's view that rate cuts are not coming soon.

Kevin Warsh is expected to take over in May. He has signaled that he will reduce the $7 trillion balance sheet and believes AI productivity will be disinflationary. The Fed’s personality is about to change. But nobody is sure exactly which way and how.

Dean’s note:
Powell’s final message was essentially this: I did my job. I held the line on inflation. I kept the economy out of recession through a war. Now someone else gets to figure out the next phase. That’s a legacy worth acknowledging. Warsh faces a different challenge: oil could stay elevated for months. The Strait is still closed. Inflation hasn’t returned to 2%. But AI productivity gains are beginning to appear in corporate margins.

The S&P’s net profit margin just hit 14.7% for Q1 2026 - the highest since FactSet began tracking it in 2009. That margin expansion in the teeth of an oil shock tells you the AI efficiency gains are real and measurable. Warsh will inherit that tailwind.

Two stories that tell you everything about where we are.

Caterpillar: beat Q1 estimates and raised its full-year revenue outlook. The company that makes bulldozers, excavators, and mining equipment sees more demand ahead. Caterpillar is a bellwether for global infrastructure spending. When they raise guidance, it means someone is building something, somewhere, at scale.

California gas: $6 per gallon as of Thursday. The highest since October 2023. The war’s pump price damage is most acute on the coasts, where refinery supply chains depend most on the Gulf.

The AI economy is booming. Construction is spending. But the consumer at the pump is still paying the war tax in their wallet every week.

Dean’s note:
The two economies theme isn’t going away yet. Caterpillar raising guidance and California gas at $6 can both be true simultaneously. The AI economy and the energy economy are still running at different speeds.

What’s new this week is that the IEA flagged demand destruction in oil, meaning high prices are beginning to do what prices always eventually do. Reduce demand. That’s the mechanism that resolves oil shocks when diplomacy fails. And while $6 gas is painful, the futures market still shows $65–$68 oil for 2027. Patient money keeps betting on that spread.

April 2026: the month the market decided the war was a detour, not a destination.

S&P up 10% in April. Nasdaq up 15%. Best months since 2020. All-time highs across the board. The Mag 4 delivered $450 billion in capex commitments and record AI revenues in a single night. Apple beat on every line. Caterpillar raised guidance. 84% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings - the best beat rate in years.

•   The Mag 4 earnings night was the defining financial event of 2026 so far. Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all beat. All raised AI capex. Together, they’re committing roughly $450 billion to AI infrastructure this year. Google Cloud is growing at 63%. Azure at 40%. That’s real revenue, not promises.

•   Apple’s quarter was the quietest loud beat of the year. Revenue +17%. iPhone +22%. Services +16% (accelerating). China +28%. Q3 guidance of 14% blew past the 10% expected. Under all the noise about AI and Tim Cook’s exit, the business is running as well as it ever has.

•   Powell held for the last time. Rate hike: no. Rate cut: no. Competing risks: yes. The 10-year yield is back at 4.41%. Warsh takes over in May. The balance sheet will shrink. The rate-cut debate restarts when oil prices drop.

•   Oil is at $102 Brent and still not cooperating. But the IEA flagged demand destruction this week meaning $4+ gas is beginning to reduce consumption. That’s the market’s self-correcting mechanism. It takes longer than diplomacy, but it’s more reliable. Oil futures for 2027 remain in the high $60s. Patience.

•  The S&P’s net profit margin hit 14.7% in Q1 2026 - the highest since FactSet began tracking in 2009. In the middle of an oil shock. That tells you AI efficiency gains are real and showing up in the numbers. Companies are producing more output with less human cost. That’s deflationary in a good way.

•   Caterpillar raised guidance. The machines that build things see more work ahead. That’s a global infrastructure signal that gets overlooked when Mag 7 earnings dominate the headlines.

•   April jobs report is due May 8. The March number was 178,000. The April number will tell us whether the oil shock has started to slow hiring. Watch that more than anything else next week.

•   Keep contributing to your 401(k). The $24,500 limit is in effect. If you’re 60-63, the $35,750 super catch-up applies. You were buying at the lows six weeks ago. You’re buying at the highs now. That’s what dollar-cost averaging is designed to do. Show up. Every paycheck. No exceptions.

April is over. The S&P gained 10%. The war is still happening. Oil is still above $100. The Strait is still closed. The Fed is still on hold. And the stock market just had its best month since November 2020.

That sentence should tell you everything you need to know about the futility of trying to time the market based on headlines. The news was bad. The market went up anyway, because earnings - real earnings from real companies doing real things - were extraordinary.

Stay diversified. Stay invested. Watch May 8.

-Dean

P.S. The number that sticks with me this week: 61%. That’s how much the Magnificent Seven grew earnings in Q1 2026, versus the 22% analysts expected at the start of the quarter. When the most-watched companies in the world beat by that margin during a war, an oil shock, and a correction, something important is being said about the durability of the AI earnings story. This is not a bubble. Bubbles don’t generate 63% Google Cloud revenue growth. Bubbles don’t generate $56 billion in Meta revenue. Bubbles generate promises. This generated receipts.

And one more thought. California gas hit $6 a gallon this week. The IEA is predicting a contraction in oil demand this year. Those two facts together constitute the market’s own oil-shock resolution mechanism at work. When the price of something rises high enough, people use less of it. Demand falls. Supply stays the same or rises. Price comes down. It’s not comfortable. It’s not fast. But it’s reliable. The futures market has been pricing oil at $65-68 for 2027 since the first week of the war. I’ve said it every edition. I’m saying it again. Patience.

👉 What if building real wealth in 2026 isn’t about reacting to every headline, but about having a plan that works in any environment? My Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio shows how to mix stocks, cash, gold, and even bitcoin in a way that protects you and gives you room to grow. Check it out to see why this balanced approach could quietly put you ahead while everyone else is guessing.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.