THE DEAN’S LIST: The Truce That Wasn't

A rough week for tech and a weekend that put the Iran truce back in doubt. The headlines are loud again. Before you decide the sky is falling, pull up the Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio and look at how it is balanced across stocks, cash, gold, and a little bitcoin. A week where the crowded trade corrects, and the Middle East flares is exactly the week a portfolio built for both directions earns its keep. The screens were red and noisy. The structure underneath stayed calm.

Dean’s note:
On the surface, last week looked frightening. The technology trade that has led this whole market sold off hard. The Nasdaq fell almost 5 percent, its worst stretch since the spring. And then, over the weekend, the Iran truce that everyone thought was finished came apart, with attacks on ships and on US bases. Let me tell you why I am calm anyway, and where I am paying closer attention.

Start with the tech selloff, because it scared people the most. The most crowded trade on earth, the AI and chip names, finally got too stretched for its own good and pulled back. Over two days, the Nasdaq 100 shed more than $1 trillion. But here is the tell that this was healthy and not the end of the world. The equal-weighted S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both closed the same week near a record high. Money did not flee to cash. It rotated out of the expensive AI names and into the boring industrials, banks, and small caps nobody brags about. When investors panic, they sell everything. When investors rotate, they sell the pricey thing and buy the cheaper thing. This was the second kind.

And the demand behind the AI story is real. In the middle of the selloff, Micron reported blowout earnings and guided to $50 billion dollars in revenue, because the world cannot get enough memory chips. So this was not the AI story breaking. It was the AI price getting a haircut. A great company and a great stock are not the same thing, and last week the market remembered that.

Now the part where I am paying closer attention. A week ago, the Iran deal looked finished, oil had fallen to a pre-war low, and a cabinet official told you the war was nearly over. I told you then to watch ships, not statements. Over the weekend, the statement fell apart. Iran struck a container ship, an oil tanker, and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the US struck back. Oil, which hit a four-month low on Friday, is climbing again. The premium that drained out is trying to come back.

Here is the lesson, and it is the same one I have been preaching all year. Do not let a quiet week or a friendly press release talk you out of owning a little protection. The peace was a statement. The attacks are on the ships. Watch the ships.

So here is where I land. The tech pullback was a healthy correction, not a collapse, and the rotation underneath it is exactly what a strong market does. But the Middle East just reminded everyone that the truce is fragile, and the week ahead is loaded with data, ending with the jobs report on Thursday. Stay invested, because the trend and the rotation are healthy. Stay selective, because the AI trade is still crowded and the headlines are just getting louder again. And stay diversified, because the only people sleeping well this weekend were the ones who never bet everything on a single story.

A week ago, the AI trade cracked, and the Dow shrugged. Here is how it played out.

Monday (June 22): Tech started the week soft. Alphabet fell 5% amid worries that AI talent would leave for rivals, and SpaceX kept sliding. The Dow rose anyway, carried by Caterpillar. That split was the story all week.

Tuesday (June 23): The selling got serious. A wave of profit-taking hit the AI and chip names, and the chip ETF fell 7%. Over two days, the Nasdaq 100 shed more than a trillion dollars in value. A big bank floated the idea of more rate hikes, and Asia tumbled overnight.

Wednesday (June 24): Oil cratered to a pre-war low, near $74 Brent and $70 for US crude, as tankers moved freely through the Strait. Treasury yields fell with it. After the bell, Micron reported blowout earnings and guided to $50 billion in revenue, proving that AI demand is very real.

Thursday (June 25): A split tape. Micron jumped 15%, but Apple fell 6% after announcing price hikes on its devices, and Microsoft slid on an Xbox price increase. The Nasdaq fell for a fourth straight day. Inflation came in hot at 4.1%, but in line with forecasts, and yields slipped anyway.

Friday (June 26): Chips gave back some of the Micron pop, and the Nasdaq closed out a rough week down nearly 5%. Alphabet joined the Dow 30 index. Word spread of a possible delay in OpenAI's public offering. And the President accused Iran of firing on cargo ships, a warning shot for the weekend ahead.

Monday (June 29): The truce is in and out of trouble, changing by the minute. Over the weekend, Iran struck a container ship, an oil tanker, and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the US hit back. Oil, which fell to a four-month low on Friday, is climbing back toward $72. The peace that looked done a week ago is suddenly anything but.

The headline number was scary. In two days, the AI and chip trade lost more than a trillion dollars of value, and the Nasdaq finished the week down almost five percent, its worst stretch since the spring. The most crowded trade on earth finally got too expensive for its own good.

But look one layer down, and the panic falls apart. The same week the Nasdaq fell, the other 490 stocks within the S&P 500 did just fine. Money did not run for the exits. It rotated out of the priciest AI names and into industrials, banks, and the boring value stocks nobody brags about. That is not a market breaker. That is market broadening, which is exactly what a healthy bull market does when one corner overheats.

Dean’s note:
This is what a healthy correction looks like, and I have watched plenty of them. The air came out of the most crowded trade in the world, and instead of fleeing to cash, the money simply changed seats. The violent swings are the price you pay for a market where ten names account for 40% of everything. That concentration is the risk I keep pointing at, and last week you felt it. Own the winners. Just do not let ten of them become your whole story. Do not confuse a correction for a collapse.

A week ago, the Iran deal looked finished. Oil had collapsed to a pre-war low, tankers were sailing through the Strait of Hormuz again, and a senior official told you the war was nearly over. It was a tidy story. It did not survive the weekend.

Since Thursday, Iran has struck a container ship, a tanker carrying Qatari oil, and US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The US answered with strikes of its own. Oil, which hit a four-month low near $69 on Friday, is climbing back toward $72 this morning. The fear premium, which had almost fully drained out, is trying to creep back in, and the ceasefire that calmed everyone now looks fragile.

Dean’s note:
I have said it in this letter for a month. Watch ships, not statements. A week ago, the statement was peace, and the ships were finally moving. This weekend, the statement fell apart, and the ships came under fire. The point is not that I predicted it. Nobody can predict a missile. The point is that you never let a friendly press release talk you out of owning a little protection. The oil premium is mostly gone, which is real and good. But the headline risk just walked back into the room. Stay diversified, and do not get comfortable.

The spark for the tech selloff was not a bad earnings report. It was a price tag. Apple announced it is raising prices on the iPhone, MacBook, and iPad, and Microsoft said it is raising the price of the Xbox by up to $150. The market did not like what those increases imply, and the big tech names rolled over.

Here is the irony nobody is saying out loud. Apple's price hike and Micron's blowout are the same story told from two ends. The memory chips that made Micron rich last week are getting more expensive, and that cost has to land somewhere. It landed on Apple, and Apple just passed it on to you. Good news for the company selling the picks and shovels. A headache for the company selling the gadget, and for the shopper buying it.

Dean’s note:
This is the quiet tension at the heart of the AI boom. The cost of building it keeps rising, and not everyone can afford it. Micron can, because the world is desperate for its chips. Apple is finding out its customers have a limit. When the price of the shovels goes up, watch closely who has the power to raise prices and who has to eat the cost. That difference is where the next round of winners and losers gets sorted.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge came in hot. Prices rose 4.1 percent over the past year, the highest reading since 2023, and the core measure hit its highest since late 2023. On paper, that is exactly the kind of number that should have sent bond yields jumping and stocks falling.

Instead, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year sliding to its lowest since mid-May. Read that again. The hottest inflation print in years, and the bond market shrugged it lower. Why? Because the market can see what the Fed is staring past. The hot part of that number was energy, and energy just collapsed to a pre-war low. The reading was a snapshot of last month. The oil price is a window into next month.

Dean’s note:
The Fed's own people, like the Chicago chief, are still calling inflation too high and trending in the wrong direction, and the market still expects a possible September hike. I understand the worry. But the bond market is the adult in the room, and the long end voted with its wallet, pushing yields down on a hot number because it knows the energy spike that drove it is already gone. The Fed is fighting last month's war. The bond market is trading next month. I keep telling you which one I trust.

Two weeks ago, SpaceX was the most exciting stock on the planet. It went public in the biggest offering in history, surged 67 percent, and briefly passed Amazon to become one of the most valuable companies in the country. The crowd could not get in fast enough.

Last week, it gave almost all of it back. SpaceX fell about 17 percent, erasing nearly every dollar of gain since its debut, and now sits just above where it first started trading near 150 dollars. And in a sign that the whole new-issue parade may be cooling, word spread that OpenAI is reportedly delaying its own public offering. The stampede has slowed to a walk.

Dean’s note:
I told you two weeks ago that new offerings are built to be sold to you, not handed to you, and that there is no prize for being first into a crowded room. The crowd that paid up at 225 dollars is learning that lesson the expensive way. A great company and a great stock are not the same thing, and a stock priced for perfection has nowhere to go but down when the excitement fades. If OpenAI is really pushing back on its offering, the market may be quietly telling the whole AI parade to slow down. I am still happy to watch from the rail.

Stay invested. Stay selective. And do not let a quiet stretch lull you into dropping your guard.

A week the AI trade corrected hard, the Dow held near records, inflation ran hot but cooling underneath, and a weekend of attacks put the Iran truce back in doubt. Here is what I am holding onto.

• The tech selloff was a correction, not a collapse. The Nasdaq fell almost 5 percent while the Dow closed near a record. Money rotated out of crowded AI names and into boring value, instead of fleeing to cash. That is rotation, not ruin.

• The AI demand is real. Micron reported a blowout and guided to 50 billion dollars in revenue. This was the AI price getting a haircut, not the AI story breaking. A great company and a great stock are not the same thing.

• The Iran truce is in trouble again. Over the weekend, attacks hit ships and US bases, the US struck back, and oil is climbing off a four-month low. The peace was a statement. The attacks are on the ships. Watch the ships.

• Apple's price hike is the tell. The chips that made Micron rich are getting expensive, and Apple just passed that cost to you. Watch who can raise prices and who has to eat the cost.

• Inflation ran hot, but the bond market shrugged it lower. The hottest print in years, and yields fell, because the energy that drove it just collapsed. The Fed is fighting last month's war.

• The froth is coming out of the new issues. SpaceX gave back nearly all its gains, and OpenAI is reportedly delaying its offering. New offerings are built to be sold to you, not handed to you.

• Keep contributing to your 401(k). The limit is 24,500 dollars, and if you are 60 to 63, you get a super catch-up to 35,750. Weeks like this, when the crowded names go on sale, are exactly when those automatic contributions quietly buy you more.

Here is where I land. A correcting tech trade and a flaring Middle East make for ugly headlines, but beneath the surface, this is a market doing healthy things. It is broadening out, punishing the most expensive corner, and rewarding the patient. Stay invested, because the trend and the rotation are healthy. Stay selective, because the AI trade is still crowded and the headlines are just getting louder again.

Stay calm. And remember that the investors who do well over the long run are not the ones who dodge every scary week. They are the ones who own a plan that holds up when the crowded trade corrects, and the world gets loud at the same time, which is exactly what happened this weekend.

- Dean

P.S. The number that sticks with me this week: a record high for the equal weighted S&P 500 in the same five days the Nasdaq fell almost 5 percent. One index at a record, the other in a correction, in the same week. When somebody tells you the market is falling apart, show them that. Markets that are truly breaking do not hand one half of themselves a record while the other half corrects. That was not money leaving the building. That was money changing seats, out of the crowded AI trade and into the names nobody was bragging about a month ago.

And one more thought. The week ahead is going to be loud, so brace for it. The Iran truce cracked over the weekend, oil is climbing again, and the calendar is packed, with consumer confidence and job openings on Tuesday, manufacturing data on Wednesday, and the big June jobs report landing Thursday, a day early before the holiday. Any one of those could move the market on its own, and they are all arriving while the Middle East is back on the front page. None of this changes the long game. But it is a week to watch the ships, watch the data, and resist the urge to trade every headline. The investors who win the next month are the ones who can sit still through a noisy one. Keep an eye on it.

👉 What if building real wealth in 2026 isn't about dodging every scary week, but about owning a plan that works whether the AI trade is soaring or correcting, whether the Middle East is calm or on fire? My Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio shows how to blend stocks, cash, gold, and even a little bitcoin so you are steady on the ugly weeks and positioned for the good ones. Take a look and see why this balanced approach can quietly put you ahead while everyone else is reacting to the noise.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.