THE DEAN’S LIST: The Week Ceasefires Wobble

Dean’s note:
Two winning weeks in a row. The power of the market as a discounter on full display. The VIX just dropped below 20 for the first time since the war began. Before you start high-fiving, pull up the Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio. Take a look. The story beneath the headline has been calmer for weeks. Half the S&P sectors are flat to positive for the year. The equal-weight index is barely down. What changed this week isn’t the portfolio. It is the noise level. The noise finally got quieter. Go see the data. Then forward this to someone who’s been too scared to look at their accounts. The numbers are better than they think.

Dean’s note:
Tuesday night, at 8:01 PM, the ceasefire dropped. Pakistan brokered it at the last minute. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait, sort of. Trump received a 10-point proposal and called it “workable”. Wednesday morning, the market surged. Oil crashed 17%. Airlines jumped 12%. It felt like the war might be ending.

Then Wednesday night, Israel struck Lebanon. Hard. Over 250 people were killed in Beirut. Iran said: That’s a violation. The Strait closed again. Thursday, markets pulled back. Friday, they stabilized. And March CPI came in at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, but almost entirely driven by a 21% spike in gasoline, not by underlying demand. Core inflation was actually below expectations.

That’s the week in a paragraph. A ceasefire, a rally, a wobble, a hot CPI that wasn’t actually hot underneath, and a market that somehow finished up 3.6% anyway.

The S&P just posted back-to-back winning weeks for the first time since January. The spring is releasing. Messily. But releasing.

The most eventful week since the war began. Here’s what mattered day by day:

Monday (April 7): The market’s first chance to trade Friday’s 178,000-jobs report. The S&P gained 0.4%. Calm before the storm. Trump said Tuesday’s 8 PM deadline would be the “final” one. Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal, saying it wanted a permanent end to the war, not a pause.

Tuesday (April 8): Deadline day. Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges. He posted: “whole civilization will die tonight”. Then, at the last minute, Pakistan’s Prime Minister asked for a two-week extension and urged Iran to open the Strait as a goodwill gesture. Trump agreed. He suspended attacks. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait. A 10-point peace proposal from Iran was called “workable”. Israel agreed to the ceasefire. The S&P closed up 0.08% after erasing a 1.2% drop. The real action came after hours.

Wednesday (April 9): The relief rally. S&P gained 2.5% to 6,783. Nasdaq up 2.8%. Oil crashed 17% to around $92. Airlines exploded: Delta +12%, United +9.5%, Southwest +13%. Carnival +10%. A handful of ships, including two oil tankers, passed through the Strait. Trump posted about removing nuclear material from Iran and discussed tariff and sanctions relief. Then Wednesday night, Israel struck Lebanon with devastating force. Over 250 killed. Iran said the ceasefire was violated. The Strait closed again. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was hit by a drone strike.

Thursday (April 10): Pullback. S&P dropped 0.72% to 6,564. VIX spiked back to 26.6. Oil bounced. The ceasefire wobbled but held in name. Israel said Lebanon was not covered by the agreement. Iran accused Israel and the U.S. of violations. Shipping through the Strait remained at a standstill despite the ceasefire. Abu Dhabi’s oil chief said the Strait is still not open. Delta Air Lines reported record Q1 revenue 10% above last year. But Q2 guidance was sobering thanks to a $2 billion increase in fuel costs. CEO Ed Bastian said Delta would “meaningfully reduce” capacity growth.

Friday (April 11): March CPI landed: 3.3% annual, up from 2.4% in February. The biggest monthly jump in nearly four years. Gasoline surged 21.2%. Energy overall up 10.9%. But here’s the number that matters: core CPI excluding food and energy came in at just 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annual, both below forecasts. Medical care, personal care, and used cars actually fell. The market shrugged. The S&P dipped 0.11%. Nasdaq gained 0.35% on semis. The VIX dropped to 19.2. Peace talks began in Islamabad. The U.S. Navy entered the Strait of Hormuz for mine clearance operations for the first time since the war began.

Let me be blunt: if you expected this ceasefire to be clean, you haven’t watched enough ceasefires.

Pakistan brokered the deal minutes before Trump’s deadline. Iran sent a 10-point proposal. Both sides claimed victory. Ships started moving through the Strait. Then Israel struck Lebanon, Iran cited a violation, and the Strait effectively closed again.

By Friday, the Strait was seeing only 5 to 17 ships per day, down from hundreds before the war. More than 325 tankers remain stranded in the Gulf. Iran still requires coordination with its armed forces for any transit. The U.S. Navy began mine clearance operations.

Dean’s note:
Ceasefires arrive messy. Always have. The Abraham Accords wobbled. The Ukraine grain deal wobbled. This one is wobbling. That’s the process, not the failure. What matters: the oil war premium is deflating. Peace talks are happening. The direction is forward. The path is not a straight line. The markets move earlier than headlines. The longer the move, the more meaningful it is.

CPI came in at 3.3% annual, the highest since May 2024. The month-over-month jump of 0.9% was the biggest since June 2022. Gasoline alone accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire increase.

But look at the core. Strip out food and energy, and you get 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annual - both below what economists expected. Shelter costs rose 0.3%, but the annual rate of 3% tied its lowest since August 2021. Medical care, personal care, and used cars and trucks all declined.

Dean’s note:
This is an energy spike, not a demand problem. The Fed knows the difference. As long as the oil-driven inflation doesn’t bleed into core prices, and so far it hasn’t, the Fed will look through it. That means patience. No rate hike. One strategist put it well: “The Fed will look through the energy-driven noise so long as core holds”. That’s the story. And here’s the kicker: oil already dropped 17% on Wednesday. That deflationary pressure will start showing up in April’s CPI. It could always pop back up, but a trend is developing.

Delta reported record Q1 revenue of $14.2 billion, nearly 10% above last year. Corporate travel hit a quarterly record. Cargo rose 9%. EPS of $0.64 beat the estimate of $0.61.

That’s the good news. The bad news: Q2 earnings guidance came in at $1.00 - $1.50 per share, well below the $2.09 Wall Street expected. The reason? A $2 billion increase in fuel costs. Jet fuel prices have surged 88% since the war began. CEO Ed Bastian said Delta would “meaningfully reduce” capacity growth and isn’t updating its full-year forecast due to fuel uncertainty.

Airlines surged 12% Wednesday on the ceasefire. Every dollar oil drops is a margin expansion for airlines. If oil settles in the $80s, those Q2 numbers improve dramatically.

Dean’s note:
Delta told you two things at once. First: demand is strong. People are flying. Companies are spending. The consumer economy is alive. Second: oil is eating their margins. Both things are true. The first one is structural. The second one is temporary, if the conflict continues down the path of de-escalation.

Watch Delta’s stock as a proxy for ceasefire confidence. When Delta stops falling, the market believes the war premium is really fading. FedEx raised guidance two weeks ago. Delta reported record revenue this week. The economic canaries refuse to die. Look at its one, three or five year stock chart. No evidence of impending doom.

On Friday, the U.S. Navy entered the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began. Several destroyers began mine clearance operations. Iran protested, calling it a ceasefire violation, and reportedly warned the vessels to turn back.

This is significant. Mine clearance is a precondition for normal shipping to resume. It’s a practical step, not a symbolic one. If the Navy is clearing mines, someone in Washington believes ships will eventually be able to transit safely.

Dean’s note:
Follow the actions, not the words. Iran protests the mine clearance. But mine-infested waters are the reason insurance premiums remain sky-high, and most shipping companies won't send vessels through them even after the ceasefire. Removing mines is removing the physical obstacle. It's the most bullish thing that happened this week, and nobody is talking about it.

Oil shocks don’t last forever. Neither do ceasefires. But this one is trying.

Two winning weeks. Best weekly performance since November. VIX below 20. Back-to-back gains for the first time since January. And the ceasefire is wobbling its way forward.

•  The ceasefire is messy, and that’s normal. Ships are trickling through, not flowing. Iran still controls access. Israel says Lebanon isn’t covered. Peace talks started on Friday in Islamabad. The direction is forward. The pace is glacial. That’s how ceasefires work. The April 22 expiration is the next pressure point.

•   Oil dropped from $112 to $92 and settled around $97. Even with the Strait wobble, it’s not back to $112. The war premium is deflating. Goldman says if the Strait stays closed another month, Brent averages $100+ for the year. If it opens, $80s by Q3. The variable hasn’t changed. It’s still one shipping lane.

•   March CPI was 3.3% annual, but core was 2.6% below expectations. The Fed will look through the energy spike. No rate hike. The oil-driven inflation is already partially reversing as Wednesday’s crash flows into April data. The worst may be behind us.

•   Delta reported record revenue and weak Q2 guidance. Demand is strong, fuel is expensive. Both are true. The first is structural. The second is temporary if the ceasefire holds. Airlines are the ceasefire trade. Watch them.

•   The U.S. Navy is clearing mines in the Strait. That’s the most bullish thing nobody is talking about. You don’t clear mines unless you expect ships to pass through.

•   Bank earnings start next week. Goldman Sachs reports on Monday. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi follow. This is where we find out if the oil shock dented corporate profits or if companies managed through it. Watch guidance more than results. Forward-looking beats backward-looking.

•   Keep contributing to your 401(k). The $24,500 limit is in effect. If you’re 60 - 63, use the $35,750 super catch-up. The S&P is still below its January high. You’re still buying at a discount. The VIX just dropped below 20. The fear is fading. The discipline compounds.

The ceasefire wobbles. The Strait opens and closes like a screen door in the wind. Israel and Lebanon are still fighting. But the market posted back-to-back winning weeks. Oil is lower. The VIX is cooling. Jobs are strong. Core inflation is tame. The Navy is clearing mines.

This isn’t the end of the story. But it might be the beginning of the last chapter.

I don’t know what happens next. Nobody does. But I know the direction. And I know the direction is better than it was a week ago. That’s enough to stay invested, stay diversified, and stay patient.

Stay zoomed out. Breathe. And watch Islamabad.

- Dean

P.S. The number that sticks with me this week: 0.2%. That’s the core CPI for March. The headline screamed 3.3%, and everybody panicked about inflation. But strip out the gasoline spike - the temporary, war-driven, already-partially-reversing gasoline spike and core prices rose 0.2% in a month. That’s not inflation accelerating. That’s an oil shock creating noise on top of an economy that’s actually behaving itself. The Fed knows the difference. So should you.

And one more thought. The U.S. Navy just entered the Strait of Hormuz to clear mines. That’s not a headline-grabbing move. Nobody’s going to put that on cable news. But it’s the most important action of the week. Because you don’t spend resources clearing mines in a waterway you don’t expect to reopen. Actions tell you more than words. And right now, the actions indicate that the Strait is opening. Slowly. Messily. But opening.

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