THE DEAN’S LIST: The Week the Chips Took the Wheel

Fourth straight winning week for the S&P. New all-time highs. NVIDIA back above $5 trillion. Intel up 24% in a single day. And oil surged 16% right back to $105. Before you let the chip rally make you giddy, pull up the Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio. The portfolio is diversified for a reason. When tech rips, energy drags. When oil surges, airlines suffer. When everything moves at once, balance is the only thing that keeps you from making a decision you’ll regret. Go look. Then forward this to someone who needs to hear it.

Dean’s note:
This was the week semiconductors stole the show. Intel reported earnings that beat estimates by 2,800%. No, that’s not a typo. Twenty-eight hundred percent. The stock surged 24% on Friday, its best day since 1987. NVIDIA crossed $5 trillion in market cap. Texas Instruments jumped 18%. AMD gained 13%. The semiconductor ETF posted 18 consecutive positive sessions. Even Broadcom touched $2 trillion for the first time.

Meanwhile, Apple announced the biggest leadership change in tech: Tim Cook is stepping down after 15 years. John Ternus, the hardware chief, takes over on September 1. And Kevin Warsh sat before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing to replace Powell at the Fed. If you need lower rates for your investment thesis to work out, he sure didn’t sound like that guy. Makes me wonder how President Trump is taking this.

But oil told a different story. Brent surged 16% this week, right back to $105 after dropping to $90 last week. The ceasefire was extended, but the Strait of Hormuz is still functionally closed. Iran seized two ships. The IEA called this “the biggest energy security threat in history”. The war premium came back. Just not all the way because markets are becoming desensitized to these swings. 

And so the S&P hit new highs anyway. The market is looking past the oil problem and pricing in more of the AI future. Is the market right? It certainly thinks the weekend’s negotiations between Witkoff, Kushner, and Iranian officials will either go well or simply no longer matter. I tend to side with the latter.

A week of extremes. Chips soared, oil surged, and the market posted another record. Here’s what mattered:

Monday (April 21): Markets dipped as the ceasefire was set to expire. The S&P fell 0.24%. The Nasdaq’s 13-day winning streak ended. Trump said we seized an Iranian ship. Iran pulled out of planned talks. Then, on Tuesday evening, Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, saying Iran’s leadership is “seriously fractured”. The extension came after markets closed.

Tuesday (April 22): Markets slid again. S&P down 0.63% to 7,064. Vance’s planned trip to Islamabad was paused. Ceasefire uncertainty dominated. But after the close, Trump’s indefinite extension changed the calculus. Kevin Warsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee. He signaled he’d reduce the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet and maintain political independence. The market liked what it heard. Also: Tim Cook announced he’s stepping down as Apple CEO. John Ternus takes over on September 1. Apple dipped in after-hours trading.

Wednesday (April 23): Markets bounced. But oil surged 3% after Iran seized two ships in the Strait despite the ceasefire extension. Brent crossed back above $100. The message: ceasefire does not equal the reopening of the Strait. The two are different things, and the market is slowly learning that.

Thursday (April 24): The big day. Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by three weeks, with plans for the first meaningful Israeli-Lebanese talks since 1983. Oil pulled back slightly. Then, after the close, Intel dropped its earnings bomb: revenue of $13.6 billion, EPS of $0.29, versus $0.01 expected. Data center and AI revenue up 22%. Foundry revenue up 16%. The chipmaker is finally executing.

Friday (April 25): Intel surged 24%, its best day since 1987. AMD gained 13%. NVIDIA rose 4.3% and crossed $5 trillion in market cap for the first time since October. Texas Instruments was up 18% from the prior day’s earnings. Broadcom touched $2 trillion. The semiconductor ETF posted its 18th straight positive session. The S&P closed at a new all-time high of 7,165. The Nasdaq hit a new record at 24,837. Oil settled at $105. The week ended with chips and crude pulling the market in opposite directions. Chips won.

Intel reported earnings per share of $0.29, beating estimates of $0.01. Revenue came in at $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year, with the data center and AI division growing 22% to $5.1 billion and the foundry business climbing 16% to $5.4 billion.

The stock surged 24% on Friday, its best single-day performance in 26 years. For context, Intel has now outperformed Nvidia over the past year. Yes, really. The company that everyone left for dead is quietly executing under CEO Lip-Bu Tan.

The AI story is broadening. GPUs powered the training phase. But CPUs, Intel’s strength, are better suited for inference. That’s the phase where AI actually does useful work in the real world. The shift is what’s driving Intel’s data center recovery.

Dean’s note:
 I’ve been saying for months that the AI trade was going to broaden beyond Nvidia. This week it did. Intel, AMD, Texas Instruments, Broadcom, Arm - all surging. The semiconductor ETF posted 18 straight positive sessions. The AI infrastructure story isn’t narrowing. It’s widening. And when the investment thesis widens, the companies that benefit multiply.

Don’t chase Intel at +24%. But understand what this means: the next phase of AI isn’t about one company. It’s about an ecosystem. And the ecosystem is thriving. Meanwhile, bubble talk is alive and well. Lots of charts out there showing what happened before and after the dot-com bust with the semis. Another feather in the bullish cap for now.

NVIDIA crossed $5 trillion in market cap for the first time since October on Friday. The stock closed at $208.27, a new all-time high. Since the end of 2022, the stock has risen by more than 1,400%.

To put that in context: Nvidia is now worth more than Japan's entire GDP. One company. Designing the chips that make AI work (not even manufacturing them).

But here’s the other side: at $5 trillion, the stock is pricing in years of continued dominance. AMD is catching up. Intel just had its best day in 26 years. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all building custom chips. Competition is coming. The peak is not here yet. But it’s on the horizon.

Dean’s note:
Nvidia deserves the premium. The company prints money. But a $5 trillion valuation leaves no room for execution stumbles. I’m not saying sell. I’m saying, understand what you own. At this price, you’re not buying a growth story. You’re buying perfection priced in. And perfection is a high bar for any company, even Jensen Huang’s.

Tim Cook announced he’s stepping down as Apple CEO after 15 years. John Ternus, the chief of hardware engineering, takes over on September 1. Cook becomes executive chairman.

Under Cook, Apple’s stock gained 1,930%. The company went from $350 billion to over $4 trillion. He took over after Steve Jobs died and built a supply chain and services empire that rivals any in history.

Ternus inherits one big problem: AI. Wall Street broadly views Apple as lagging its mega-cap peers in artificial intelligence. Making up that gap will define his tenure.

This is also the year of the CEO transition: Greg Abel replaced Buffett at Berkshire. Josh D’Amaro replaced Iger at Disney. John Furner replaced McMillon at Walmart. Now Ternus replaces Cook at Apple. Four of the most important companies in the economy are under new leadership in the same year.

Dean’s note:
CEO transitions at great companies are usually non-events for long-term investors. Apple isn’t less of a business because Cook is leaving. The products, the ecosystem, the billion-plus installed base–none of that changes September 1.

What changes is the AI strategy. And Ternus, as a hardware guy, may actually be exactly what Apple needs to build the devices that bring AI to consumers. BofA called it a transition from a position of strength. I agree. It was time for a change. And if Ternus isn’t the right guy, the market will tell the board and he will be recycled quickly.

Oil told the opposite story this week. After crashing to $90 last week on the Lebanon ceasefire and Iran’s completely open Strait announcement, Brent surged 16% back to $105.

Why? Because the Strait isn’t actually open. Iran seized two ships. The U.S. Navy is blockading Iranian ports. Only a handful of vessels are transiting. The IEA’s Fatih Birol called this “the biggest energy security threat in history”. About 13 million barrels per day remain disrupted.

The ceasefire is holding. But a ceasefire and an open Strait are two different things. The market learned that lesson this week.

Dean’s note:
Oil is the variable that won’t go away. The S&P posted new highs despite oil trading at $105. That tells you how strong the underlying economy and earnings are. But it also shows the market is betting heavily that oil prices will fall. Futures for 2027 are still in the high $60s. If that bet is right, the trend has more room to run. If it’s wrong, if the Strait stays closed for months, the economy will feel it.

Witkoff and Kushner are meeting Iranian officials directly for the first time. Let’s see what happens. Nothing might be on par with something.

Chips and crude. Two stories. One market. The AI trade won this round.

Fourth straight winning week. New all-time highs. Intel’s best day in 26 years. NVIDIA at $5 trillion. And oil is back to $105 because the Strait is still closed.

•  Intel’s 2,800% earnings surprise broadened the AI trade. AMD +13%. TI +18%. Broadcom at $2 trillion. Semis posted 18 straight positive sessions. The AI story isn’t one company anymore. It’s an ecosystem. That’s healthier and more durable than a one-stock trade.

•   Nvidia at $5 trillion is remarkable and demands respect. But at this price, you’re buying perfection. Competition is coming. AMD, Intel, Google’s TPU, Amazon’s Trainium, Microsoft’s Maia. The moat is deep but not infinite.

•   Oil surged 16% back to $105 despite the ceasefire. The Strait is still closed. Iran seized ships. The IEA says this is the worst energy crisis ever. Oil futures for 2027 are at $ 65–$68. The spread between today and next year is still enormous. One side will be proven right. My money is on the futures curve.

•   Tim Cook’s exit and the CEO turnover year. Apple, Berkshire, Disney, Walmart - four of the biggest companies under new leadership in the same calendar year. Transitions at great companies are usually buying opportunities, not selling ones. Watch, don’t react.

•    Warsh testified. He’ll shrink the balance sheet. He’ll keep the Fed independent. He believes AI is disinflationary. The Fed’s personality is changing, but nobody is sure how. And what happened to Trump’s lower rates doctrine? This matters for every rate-sensitive investment you own.

•    Witkoff and Kushner are in Pakistan this weekend for direct talks with Iran. If progress is made, oil drops and the rally extends. If it fails, oil spikes and the market wobbles. This theme is honestly becoming secondary and that’s worth noting..

•   76% of S&P companies are beating earnings. Banks swept. Tech is mostly delivering. ServiceNow and IBM disappointed, but the breadth is strong. Earnings season is validating the rally.

•   Keep contributing to your 401(k). The $24,500 limit is in effect. If you’re 60 - 63, use the $35,750 super catch-up. Yes, you’re buying at all-time highs. That’s been true for most of the last two decades. Dollar-cost averaging doesn’t wait for dips. It just shows up.

The market is telling two stories at once. The AI story says the future is being built right now, at scale, across an entire ecosystem of chipmakers. The oil story says the present is still dangerous, with 13 million barrels a day disrupted and the world’s most important shipping lane closed.

Both stories are true. The market is betting the AI story lasts longer than the oil story. Based on everything I’ve seen in eight weeks of covering this war, I think the market is right. But I’ve been wrong before. And so has the market.

Stay diversified. Stay humble.

-Dean

P.S. The number that sticks with me this week: 2,800%. That’s how much Intel beat earnings expectations, $0.29 versus $0.01 expected. A company that was trading for less than $20 eighteen months ago just had its best day since 1987. The AI trade is broadening. It’s not just Nvidia anymore. That’s healthier for the market, healthier for competition, and healthier for your portfolio. When the tide lifts all boats, you don’t need to own the one perfect stock. You need to own the sector. And the sector just had the best week in years.

And one more thought. Four of the biggest companies in the economy changed CEOs this year. Apple. Berkshire. Disney. Walmart. That’s not a coincidence. It’s a generational handoff. The leaders who built these companies through the 2010s and early 2020s are passing the baton to those who’ll lead them into the AI era. That’s not something to fear. That’s something to watch carefully and with optimism. New leadership at great companies usually means new energy. And new energy, when channeled correctly, is how the next $5 trillion gets built.

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.