THE DEAN’S LIST: The Week the Market Crossed Every Line

Dean’s note: Six straight winning weeks. Nasdaq above 26,000. S&P above 7,400. The VIX at 15. Before you pop the cork, pull up the Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio. Look at how it is balanced. Because here’s what didn’t get a ticker symbol this week: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey just hit 48.2, the lowest reading of the year. The people buying tickets to the stock market rally are not the same people paying $6 for gas in California. Both things are real. The portfolio is built for both.

Let me walk you through a week that felt like the entire year compressed into five trading sessions.

Monday: Iran fires missiles at UAE oil installations. Oil spikes 6%. Dow drops 557.

Tuesday: S&P hits a new all-time high. Intel gains 14% on Apple chip reports. Micron surges 10%.

Wednesday: Axios reports the U.S. and Iran are nearing a peace deal. S&P crosses 7,300 for the first time ever. Nasdaq gains 2%. Energy stocks crater 4%.

Thursday: Iran denies the peace deal. Oil bounces back. Markets pull back slightly.

Friday: 115,000 jobs added in April, more than double the 55,000 expected. Wages come in below estimates…goldilocks. S&P hits a new all-time record of 7,399. Nasdaq closes above 26,000 for the first time in history. Six consecutive winning weeks. The longest streak since 2024.

That’s the week. And buried inside it is the most important question in the market right now: if there is an Iran peace deal, how much further does this run? Or is that a sell the news event? And if the conflict drags on, what does the market do with $105 oil and rock bottom consumer sentiment?

I don’t have a clean answer. Nobody does. But the direction of the evidence is clear enough: the labor market is holding. Earnings are extraordinary. The AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating. And oil, even at $105, is below the $114 peak we saw Tuesday before the peace deal news broke.

The spring released. All the way. Now we’re looking at whether the foundation underneath the rally is as strong as the headlines suggest. Spoiler: most of it is.

One of the most whipsaw weeks since the war began. Here’s what happened in detail:

Monday (May 4): Iran’s weekend missile attack on UAE oil installations sent oil spiking 6% and the Dow falling 557 points. The UAE missile defense intercepted everything. No infrastructure hit. But the ceasefire looked more fragile than ever. Greg Abel ran his first Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting without incident, showing Omaha that Berkshire is bigger than any one person. FedEx dropped 9% after Amazon launched Amazon Supply Chain Services, its own freight and logistics network. When Amazon decides to build something, whatever they’re competing with falls.

Tuesday (May 5): A remarkable session. The S&P climbed back to a new all-time high of 7,259. Intel gained 14% on reports it may manufacture chips for Apple devices - potentially transforming Intel’s foundry business. Micron surged 10% and crossed $700 billion in market cap on confirmation that its high-bandwidth memory chips are sold out through 2026. JOLTS data showed the hiring rate jumped sharply to 3.5%, a good sign for the labor market.

Wednesday (May 6): The biggest single-day move of the week. Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are getting close to a peace deal that would include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. The S&P surged 1.46% to 7,365 - its first close above 7,300 ever. The Nasdaq gained 2.02% to 25,839. The Dow added 612 points. Energy stocks cratered 4.2% as oil prices fell sharply on hopes of a ceasefire. Sphere Entertainment beat earnings and raised guidance - up more than 50% in 2026. AMD reported after the close: EPS $1.37 vs. $1.29 expected, revenue $10.25 billion vs. $9.9 billion expected. CEO Lisa Su said the demand surge is driven by agentic AI.

Thursday (May 7): Iran denied the peace deal. Markets pulled back modestly as oil bounced. But the pullback was small. The market assigned a real probability to a deal even without official confirmation. Productivity data released Thursday showed unit labor costs grew just 2.3%, below the 1.6% estimate. Companies are producing more per hour worked at a lower cost. That’s AI efficiency showing up in the macro data. Japan’s Nikkei crossed 62,000 for the first time ever, reflecting the global nature of this AI-driven rally.

Friday (May 8): The April jobs report. The economy added 115,000 jobs, more than double the 55,000 expected. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% monthly and 3.6% annually, below the 0.3% and 3.8% expected. That combination is the sweet spot for the Fed: a labor market that’s holding without reigniting inflation. The S&P surged 0.84% to close at 7,399, a new all-time record. The Nasdaq jumped 1.71% to close above 26,000 for the first time in history at 26,247. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 48.2, a 2026 low. The gap between stock market highs and consumer mood is the widest it’s been all year.

On Wednesday, Axios cited sources saying the U.S. and Iran are nearing a peace agreement that would include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment and, presumably, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil dropped sharply. Energy stocks fell 4%.

On Thursday, Iran denied it. Oil bounced. Markets gave back a fraction.

Here’s what matters: the market priced in a deal in hours and gave back only a small fraction when the deal was denied. That’s the market telling you it believes a deal is closer than Iran’s public statements suggest. It has been absorbing bad news faster than it absorbs good news, because the underlying bet is that the war ends.

Oil futures for 2027 have been in the high $60s since the war began in week one. That bet has been in the right direction. Oil is at $105 now versus $114 at its peak. The gap between $114 and $65 will close. The timing remains the only question.

Dean’s note:
Negotiations like this never go in a straight line. Every serious peace deal in history had a period during which it was publicly denied while being discussed privately. The reaction to the denial told me more than the denial itself. When bad news barely moves the market, it's telling you it doesn't believe the bad news. I’m watching shipping data from the Strait more than any statement from either side.

The April jobs report landed Friday with a number almost no one expected: 115,000 new jobs, against a forecast of 55,000. More than double. Healthcare led with 37,000. Transportation and warehousing added 30,000. Retail added 22,000. The federal government continued to decline by 9,000. The information sector fell by 13,000.

But the number that matters most isn’t the 115,000. It’s the wage data. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% monthly, below the 0.3% expected, and 3.6% annually, below the 3.8% expected. Wages slowing while jobs grow is the exact combination the Fed has been hoping for. It means the labor market is not generating the kind of demand-pull inflation that forces rate hikes.

The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for the second consecutive month. The labor force participation rate ticked down slightly to 61.8%.

Dean’s note:
This is the Goldilocks jobs report. Not too hot to reignite inflation fears. Not too cold to raise recession flags. The “low hiring, low layoffs” environment that has characterized the labor market for over a year is intact. Goldman Sachs pointed out this week that for the Fed to cut rates, it likely needs to see unemployment at 4.5% or significantly negative job growth. We’re not there. We don’t know what the Warsh Fed will do just yet, but I think it could surprise with a more dovish tilt than most expect. If the punch bowl was taken away at some point, they might just bring it back so the party can get going once again.

Advanced Micro Devices reported after the bell on Wednesday. EPS $1.37 versus $1.29 expected. Revenue $10.25 billion versus $9.9 billion expected. Data center revenue led.

But the headline wasn’t the numbers. It was what CEO Lisa Su said on the call. The surge in demand is coming from agentic AI systems that don’t just answer questions but take actions, complete tasks, and run continuously. Su said this is driving demand specifically for central processing units, which is AMD's strength alongside GPUs.

This matters because it validates what Arm’s AGI CPU launch said three weeks ago. The AI workload is shifting from training (where you need massive GPU clusters) to inference and action (where CPUs and efficient chips matter more). The companies positioned for that shift like Arm, Intel, AMD and Micron, are all surging.

Dean’s note:
Lisa Su’s “agentic AI” framing is the most important thing anyone said in an earnings call this week. Agentic AI is AI that does your work, not just AI that answers your questions. Every company on Earth is building toward that.

The chips that power agents run continuously, generate enormous memory demand, and require a fundamentally different architecture than the training chips that made Nvidia famous. This is why Intel gained 14% on Apple chip reports. This is why Micron’s HBM is sold out through 2026. The trade isn’t narrowing. It’s broadening and deepening simultaneously.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth nobody wanted to talk about this week.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high of 7,399 on Friday. The Nasdaq closed above 26,000 for the first time ever.

On the same day, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 48.2 - the lowest reading of 2026, below the 49.7 economists expected. The survey cited surging gas prices as the primary driver. California gas is still above $6 a gallon. The national average has crept back above $4.

The gap between equity market performance and consumer mood is real. It reflects the two-economy story that has run through this entire newsletter series: the AI and energy economies are operating at very different speeds.

Dean’s note:
Consumer sentiment at 48.2 is not a number to ignore. It’s not the best leading indicator. But it would help if the gap between sentiment and forward-looking stock prices closes sooner rather than later. People are working, and wages are stable. But sentiment that low, sustained over time, may eventually translate into reduced spending.

Six straight weeks. Nasdaq above 26,000. S&P above 7,400. The VIX at 15. And a consumer sentiment survey at a 2026 low.

All of that is true at the same time. The market is not wrong, nor is the consumer. They’re looking at different time horizons with different information sets.

•    The six-week winning streak is historic context, not a promise. The S&P has gained roughly 17% from its March 30 low. That’s faster than almost any recovery in recent memory. Streaks end. What matters is whether the foundation is intact when they do. This week said yes: jobs holding, wages cooling, AI spending accelerating, earnings beating at historic rates.

•    The Iran peace deal news was the most important story of the week, even if it was denied. The market’s reaction to the denial - barely moving - told you the real probability assignment. Negotiations of this complexity don’t end in press releases. They end in shipping data. Watch the Strait.

•    115,000 jobs with 3.6% wage growth. The Goldilocks report. Not hot enough to reignite inflation fears. Not cold enough to raise recession concerns. The Fed stays patient. Patient Fed means no rate hikes and no pressure on corporate borrowing costs.

•   AMD’s agentic AI framing is the insight that will define the next phase of the chip trade. Training AI needs massive GPUs. Agentic AI needs CPUs, efficient inference chips, and enormous memory bandwidth. ARM, Intel, AMD, and Micron are all positioned for that shift. The trade is broadening.

•    Consumer sentiment at 48.2 is the honest counterpoint to everything else. Lower and middle-income folks paying $4+ for gas nationwide and $6 in California are not celebrating the S&P's new highs. This is the gap to watch in Q2. If oil drops - and the peace deal makes that more likely, the gap closes. If oil stays elevated, consumer spending may soften.

•   Six winning weeks, and the April jobs report just confirmed: the recession scenario is off the table for now. Goldman Sachs said rate cuts require unemployment at 4.5% or more, or significantly negative job growth. We’re at 4.3% with 115,000 new jobs. Not even close. The economy is bending. Still not breaking.

•   Keep contributing to your 401(k). The $24,500 limit is in effect. The $35,750 super catch-up for 60-to 63-year-olds is available if you qualify. You are buying at all-time highs. So is everyone who ever bought in 2019. Or 2021. Or any point when the S&P felt expensive. The math of dollar-cost averaging doesn’t care about price. It cares about process. Show up. Every paycheck.

This is the part of the market cycle that separates the investors from the speculators. Speculators get excited at new highs and start taking unnecessary risks. Investors know that new highs, sustained by genuine earnings growth and a functioning labor market, are exactly when you hold your ground, stay diversified, and let the compounding work.

The AI decade is real. The energy problem is temporary. The labor market is resilient. The earnings are extraordinary. And the peace deal, real or not yet, is closer than the market was pricing three months ago.

Stay zoomed out. Stay diversified. And watch the Strait.

- Dean

P.S. The number that sticks with me this week: 48.2. That’s the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for May - the lowest of 2026. On the same day, the S&P hit 7,399. I’ve been around long enough to know that when the stock market and consumer sentiment diverge this sharply, one of them is wrong about the future. Usually, it’s sentiment that catches up with the market, because sentiment is driven by present pain (gas prices) while markets are driven by future expectations (the AI decade, the peace deal, lower oil). But sometimes the market catches up to sentiment rather than the other way around. The jobs report on Friday leaned toward the former. The gas price data leaned toward the latter. Don’t be complacent. Be invested and attentive.

And one more thought. Lisa Su said something on AMD’s earnings call that I want you to sit with: the demand surge is coming from agentic AI. Not AI that answers your questions. AI that does your work. Every time a company deploys an AI agent to handle a task that used to require a human, that agent runs continuously, consumes memory, compute, and bandwidth. It never sleeps. The infrastructure demand from that shift is structural, not cyclical. We are at the beginning of that deployment curve, not the middle. The companies building the infrastructure for the agentic era are not speculating. They are building the roads before the cars arrive. That’s always been the best place to be.

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.