THE DEAN’S LIST: The Week the Market Skipped a Beat

Dean’s note:
Last week, Monday’s buy-the-dip recovery felt like proof that the market could handle a war. This week, the market admitted that it can’t handle a war AND a weak labor market AND $100 oil all at once. The S&P 500 broke below its 100-day moving average for the first time since late November. Oil posted its biggest weekly gain in the 43-year history of futures trading. The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. And the VIX exploded to levels we haven’t seen since the tariff panic last year. This is the week the market stopped pretending everything was fine.

But here’s what I want you to notice underneath the wreckage. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker fell to 2.1% from 3.0%, slower, but not recessionary. Rate cut expectations actually got pulled forward after the jobs report. Traders are now pricing the first cut for July. That’s not the market giving up. That’s the market recalibrating. There’s a difference. And if you can see it while everyone else is panicking, you have an edge.

A week that started with hope and ended with a gut punch. Here’s what actually mattered:

Monday (March 3): The day everyone will remember as “the buy-the-dip day.” The S&P opened down 1.2% after the weekend’s Iran strikes, then clawed all the way back to close flat. The Nasdaq actually gained 0.36%. Defense stocks surged 6%. It felt heroic. It felt like the market could absorb anything. That feeling lasted about 18 hours.

Tuesday (March 4): Reality set in. Oil kept climbing. The S&P fell 0.9%. The Dow lost 403 points. Every sector closed red. The VIX jumped to 23.57. Intel dropped 5.3%. Caterpillar fell 4%. The S&P closed below its 100-day moving average for the first time in three and a half months. The market was telling you Monday’s recovery was premature.

Wednesday (March 5): A bounce. The ISM services report showed the economy expanding at its fastest pace since mid-2022, with a price index hitting an almost one-year low. The Dow added 238 points. The S&P gained 0.78%. The Nasdaq popped 1.29%. Micron and AMD both surged over 5%. Ross Stores jumped 7% on blowout earnings. For a few hours, it felt like the worst was over. Then Broadcom’s guidance underwhelmed after hours, even as they announced a $10 billion buyback. Mixed signals everywhere.

Thursday (March 6): The selling resumed. Marvell Technology surged 11% on strong AI-driven results, but it was a lonely bright spot. Gap fell 8% on a slight earnings miss. The Dow lost 673 points at its worst. Airlines cratered—United’s CEO said the fuel price spike would have a “meaningful” impact on Q1 results. Delta fell 4%. Southwest dropped 6%. Cruise operators Norwegian and Carnival each lost about 6%. The war’s second-order effects were showing up in real earnings guidance.

Friday (March 7): The one-two punch. The February jobs report came in at negative 92,000—the worst miss in months. Expected: positive 59,000. Unemployment rose to 4.4%. December was revised down to negative 17,000. The average duration of unemployment hit 25.7 weeks, the longest since December 2021. Meanwhile, WTI crude surged above $90 for the first time in over a year. Trump demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, raising fears of a prolonged conflict. Qatar’s energy minister warned oil could hit $150 if the Strait stays closed. The Dow lost another 453 points. The Russell 2000 fell 2.4%. The VIX exploded to 29.5. It was, by any measure, a terrible Friday.

I’ve been watching oil markets for decades. This week felt like a shock, but not much different than other wars including Ukraine and Iraq.

WTI crude surged 36% in five trading days. That is the biggest weekly gain in the entire 43-year history of oil futures trading, going back to 1983. But oil prices have been subdued for a number of years given the upheaval in the Middle East. So this spike to $100 doesn’t feel particularly menacing.

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Tankers are rerouting or sitting still. Traffic through the most important energy chokepoint on the planet has effectively stopped. And it’s not just oil. The Strait is a key corridor for transporting fertilizer ingredients to the world, just in time for planting season. That’s why CF Industries surged 5% on Friday alone and is up 17% for the week. Bunge Global and Archer Daniels Midland are rallying too. The market is starting to understand that a closed Strait doesn’t just mean expensive gas. It means expensive food.

Goldman Sachs said Friday that oil is likely to exceed $100 next week if no signs of a solution emerge. Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that prices could reach $150 if tankers can’t pass through. 

Dean’s note:
Last week I said oil at $78 was manageable and oil at $100 was a different story. We are firmly in the “different story” territory. Our politicians understand that and we’re seeing positive movement out of Washington to correct course.

Energy stocks are the clear winners - up 24% year-to-date and still only 3.5% of the S&P 500. Airlines and cruise lines are the clear losers. Watch the shipping lanes. They are the most important variable in global markets right now. Everything else is noise.

Friday’s jobs report was a pock mark on the economic landscape. Let me be direct about that.

The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. That was the worst since October. The consensus expected a gain of 59,000. It was the third time in five months that payrolls were negative. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. December was revised down by 65,000 to an outright loss of 17,000 jobs. The three-month average of job gains is now less than 6,000 per month. 

The biggest single factor was a strike at Kaiser Permanente that sidelined over 30,000 healthcare workers in California and Hawaii. Healthcare had been the primary growth driver in payrolls for the past year. Without the strike, the number would have still been weak, but not catastrophic. Construction lost 11,000 after surging 48,000 in January which is simple weather volatility. And federal government payrolls dropped another 10,000, continuing a trend that started with the workforce reductions.

The only concerning part is the household survey. The number of employed individuals has declined by nearly 850,000 since November. Labor force participation dropped from 62.5% to 62.0%, with about 1.2 million people exiting the labor force entirely. If participation had held steady, the unemployment rate would have topped 5%. That’s a number the headline didn’t show.

Dean’s note:
This report is a “perfect storm of temporary drags,” as Jefferies economist Thomas Simons put it. Strikes. Weather. Federal workforce cuts. All landing in the same month. I’m not dismissing it. But I’m also not making more of it than one month of data.

The real story is the trend: hiring has been close to stalling for months. We’re in a “no hire, no fire” economy that could tip into something worse if the oil shock starts eating into consumer confidence.

Keep your eyes on jobless claims in the coming weeks. That’s the canary in the coal mine. If claims start spiking, we have a real problem. If they stay rangebound, February was a blip. Either way, this report just made rate cuts more likely, not less. And the market knows it. It’s the ultimate discounter of data. Watch stocks closely. They will tell us where employment is heading, not vice versa.

If you work in tech or anywhere near a keyboard for a living, this one should have your attention.

Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of Block (formerly Square), announced this week that the company is cutting roughly 40% of its workforce. The reason? Artificial intelligence. Dorsey said AI can now do the work that those employees were doing. Not in five years. Not eventually. Now.

This is the first major corporate announcement where a well-known CEO publicly said they’re replacing a massive chunk of their human workforce with AI. Not augmenting. Replacing. It’s one thing when a research paper says AI could displace millions of jobs. It’s another thing when the guy who built Twitter and Square is actually doing it.

Dean’s note:
The AI story is becoming a two-track narrative. Track one: the companies building AI infrastructure are printing money. Track two: the companies deploying AI are firing people. Both tracks are bullish for AI stocks and challenging for workers. Have you played with Clawdbot?

I can tell you Cardiff’s IT department is using it to prototype AI-enabled processes. This is the uncomfortable middle ground where technology creates enormous shareholder value while simultaneously eliminating some paychecks that fund consumer spending. If you’re an investor, this may be a tailwind. If you’re a worker, it’s a wake-up call. And if you’re a Fed official trying to figure out why hiring is stalling, it’s a big clue.

Last week I told you to watch the retailers. This week, Ross Stores proved why.

Ross reported fourth-quarter results on Wednesday that blew past expectations. Revenue surged 12.2% year-over-year to $6.64 billion, well above the $6.42 billion analysts expected. Earnings came in at $2.00 per share versus $1.90 expected. The stock jumped 7%.

This comes right after TJX’s blowout quarter the week before. Revenue up 9%, earnings up 16%. Walmart and Costco are near records. The off-price retail thesis is not just holding. It’s accelerating.

Here’s why this matters beyond the stock price. These companies are the closest thing we have to a real-time consumer report card. They tell you what people are actually doing with their money, not what headlines say they should be feeling. And what they’re saying is: people are spending. They’re just spending smarter. Higher-income households are trading down to T.J. Maxx and Ross to stretch their dollars.

And the tariff tailwind I mentioned last week is becoming more obvious. When traditional retailers pass tariff costs onto consumers, the gap between full-price and off-price gets wider. Ross and TJX buy opportunistically and pivot fast. Tariffs that hurt everyone else are a structural advantage for them.

Dean’s note:
The economy’s grade is still better than the economy’s mood. That doesn’t mean it will stay that way. $100+ oil can change a lot of things quickly. But as of this week, the consumer is adapting, not collapsing. Pay attention to what people do with their money. It tells you more than any forecast.

While everyone was watching oil and Iran, Bitcoin quietly climbed above $73,000. That’s its highest level in weeks, and the move came with an interesting catalyst.

President Trump posted on his social platform that banks should not be allowed to block the GENIUS Act. That’s the stablecoin legislation that would let crypto exchanges like Coinbase offer yield-bearing returns on stablecoins. The argument is simple: Coinbase can pay you better rates on your money than your bank does. Banks don’t like that. Trump is siding with crypto.

The broader backdrop is this: when the dollar strengthens (which it is, as a safe haven during the Iran conflict), and when traditional markets sell off (which they are), some capital flows into crypto as an alternative. Bitcoin sitting above $73,000 while the S&P is down 2% for the week is worth noting.

Dean’s note:
I’m not a crypto maximalist and never will be. But I’m also not blind. Bitcoin held its ground and even rallied during a week when almost everything else got destroyed.

Legislative support from the White House is a meaningful tailwind. If you have a small crypto allocation 2% to 5%—this is the kind of week that reminds you why. If you don’t, that’s fine too. But don’t ignore what the market is telling you about where capital flows when traditional assets are under stress.

Things that seemed impossible two weeks ago are happening right now.

Let me be honest with you. This was a nasty week. Not a scary-but-fine week like last Monday suggested. I don’t love the jobs picture or a closed Strait of Hormuz. The war in Iran wasn’t heading in the right direction either.

But here’s what I need you to understand, and this is the single most important thing I’ll write today: bad weeks are where long-term wealth is built. Not enjoyed. Built.

Here’s my framework for the week ahead:

• Oil is no longer a background variable. It’s the main character. At around $90, we are in a fundamentally different market than we were two weeks ago when crude was in the low $70s. Every sector, every company, every consumer will feel this if it persists. Airlines are already warning. 

• The jobs report changes the Fed math. Rate cut expectations just got pulled forward to July. A second cut before year-end is now priced in. That’s actually constructive for stocks if the economy doesn’t fall off a cliff. The Fed was stuck. Now they have permission to move. Watch the CPI report next week. It will tell us whether the inflation picture cooperates with the employment picture or fights it.

• The VIX at 29.5 means fear is real but not extreme. During COVID, the VIX hit 82. During the 2022 bear market, it touched 36. We’re elevated, not panicking. That’s actually a good sign. Extreme VIX readings often mark bottoms. We’re not there yet.

• Gold’s first weekly loss in five is interesting. It tells you investors are selling gold to raise cash and cover losses elsewhere. That’s a classic risk-off move. When gold starts rallying again alongside stocks, that’s your signal that the worst of the liquidation is over.

• The AI story is splitting into winners and losers. Hardware companies like Nvidia and Marvell are printing money. Companies deploying AI are cutting workers. Block just told you the future: 40% fewer humans. For investors, follow the money. For workers, adapt or be adapted. 

•  Off-price retail is the economy’s hidden strength. Ross just proved it again. As long as TJX, Ross, Walmart, and Costco are posting numbers like this, the consumer hasn’t quit. They’re spending differently, not less. That matters.

•  Keep contributing to your 401(k). The $24,500 limit is in effect. If you’re 60–63, you can put in $35,750 with the super catch-up. I know it feels terrible to invest into a market that’s selling off. That’s the point. Buying when it’s uncomfortable is exactly how you build long-term wealth. Every single time.

This was the worst week for markets since the tariff panic last November. Oil made history. Jobs disappeared. The war intensified. And the easy “buy the dip” playbook from last Monday is in question.

But here’s what hasn’t changed: your time horizon. Your diversification. Your discipline. The people who build real wealth through moments like this aren’t the ones who guessed the bottom right. They’re the ones who showed up consistently, stayed diversified, and didn’t let the worst week of the year become the worst decision of their lives.

We have a 10% cash buffer for a reason. I said last week we’d see if March was the month to put it to work. We’re getting closer. Not yet. But closer.

Stay zoomed out. Breathe. And remember: the market is repricing, not dying.

— Dean

P.S. The common thread this week isn’t Iran or jobs or oil or AI. It’s the same thread it always is: things that seemed impossible two weeks ago are happening right now. $91 oil was unthinkable at $67. Negative 92,000 jobs was unthinkable after January’s 126,000. A CEO firing 40% of his company for AI was a thought experiment, not a press release. The lesson is always the same: prepare for a range of outcomes, not the most likely one. Diversify. Hold cash. Own quality. And when the world reprices everything at once, be the person who was already ready.

Keep your eyes on the Strait of Hormuz. Keep your eyes on the CPI report next Wednesday. Keep your eyes on jobless claims. And keep your hands off the sell button.

👉 What if building real wealth in 2026 isn’t about reacting to every headline, but about having a plan that works in any environment? My Single-Digit Millionaire portfolio shows how to mix stocks, cash, gold, and even bitcoin in a way that protects you and gives you room to grow. Click to see why this balanced approach could quietly put you ahead while everyone else is guessing.